Current projects
- “VECTOR-X: Modelling vector-based surveillance methods for lymphatic filariasis and other neglected tropical diseases.” Royal Society University Research Fellowship (2024 – 2032).
- “Translating a cross-border migration model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to the specific case of the Thailand-Myanmar border.” EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (2024). Research Assistant: Emma Exall.
Recent projects
- “Linking modelling and policy for lymphatic filariasis elimination surveillance in Bangladesh.” Policy Support Fund, Research England (2023 – 2024). Research Assistant: Jimmy McKendrick.
- “Collaborating with national programmes to detect resurgence of the disease lymphatic filariasis in post-elimination settings through mosquito sampling: sensitivity and feasibility.” EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (2023). Research Assistant: Melissa Iacovidou.
PhD students
- Rob Sunnucks. “Adaptive Management for Strategies against NTDs.” MathSys CDT, University of Warwick (2024 – ).
- Luke Murray-Kearney. “Age-specific representation of social contact networks using egocentric survey data.” MathSys CDT, University of Warwick (2023 – ).
- Li Pi. “The impacts of heterogeneity in contact behaviors on the dynamics of UK COVID-19 pandemic.” Big Data Institute, University of Oxford (2020 – 2024).
My research interests
My work involves developing, validating and deploying mechanistic models across a range of diseases, including:
- Neglected Tropical Diseases
- Lymphatic filariasis
- Other vector-borne diseases
- Soil-transmitted helminths
- COVID-19
- Malaria
I aim to publish all relevant code on GitHub and co-wrote a peer-reviewed article on unit testing and responsible modelling for infectious diseases in 2020. My experiences working within the JUNIPER consortium (pandemic modelling) and the NTD Modelling Consortium have demonstrated that collaboration is a key to reproducible and robust science, so if you’re interested in working with me then please get in touch, I’d love to hear from you!
Recent research projects
COVID-19 Test Trace and Isolate in the UK
We developed an individual-based stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission, considering variable infectivity relative to time of infection. By considering testing and isolation behaviours, our results demonstrated that adherence and symptom reporting are the most important factors when assessing the potential impact of contact tracing efforts.
Lymphatic filariasis elimination
Simulating vector-borne transmission of lymphatic filariasis as a branching process showed the importance of parameterisation when calculating population breakpoints. Extinction probabilities are highly dependent on key parameters, such as the probability a juvenile parasite will survive maturation in the host and the annual mosquito biting rate.
A compartmental mosquito feeding-cycle model
By combining a compartmental gonotrophic cycle model of the mosquito population with an SEI infection model, we investigated the differential effects of vector-based interventions targeting larval and adult stages on the mosquito population dynamics to assess the mechanisms for reducing transmission of vector-borne diseases, such as lymphatic filariasis and malaria.
Seasonal timing of treatment for soil-transmitted helminths
We incorporated seasonal forcing, due to environmental fluctuations in rainfall and temperature, into a deterministic mean worm burden model of ascaris lumbricoides transmission to assess the impact of mass treatment timing. We used ABC to fit the model to prevalence data from a range of locations to conclude that optimal treatment timing coincides with the minima of the external larval population.
